Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Every NFL season is a small sample, and every offseason features significant turnover. While we often discuss how coaching and personnel changes might impact future results, it can be difficult to appropriately weight how past outcomes were impacted by variance.

 

Ex Post Outcome is a series dedicated to analyzing 2018 results through this lens to provide actionable intel for how to exploit recency bias in 2019 drafts.

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Former fifth overall pick Corey Davis enters his third season in 2019 with more target competition than ever. The Titans get Delanie Walker back healthy, added Adam Humphries in free agency, and drafted Ole Miss standout A.J. Brown in the second round. That helps explain why Davis, the PPR WR27 in 2018, is going off the board at WR33 on average in early best-ball drafts.

Is that a fair price for Davis as he enters his third NFL season? Or an overreaction to the perceived disappointment of his Year 2 finish after he was selected as the WR25 on average last year?

Reviewing 2018

The biggest knock on Davis in 2018 was inconsistency. Indeed, while he hit double-digit targets four times, he had seven or fewer in each of the other 12 games. He caught three or fewer passes in half of his games.

Team context played a huge role, though. Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury to his throwing arm in Week 1, and the Titans subsequently threw 25 or fewer passes in eight games. The rest of the league's teams averaged 2.4 of these low-volume games.

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome    Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Source:ESPN

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome    Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Source:route

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome    Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?

Source:ESPN

Fantasy Football: Ex Post Outcome Is Corey Davis A Buy Low?